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Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin - High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series

Hirschfeld Lecture Series 2019 - Charles F. Manski


Patient Care under Uncertainty

These lectures focus on evidence-based decision making for patient care under uncertainty, in which clinicians face only limited ability to predict patients’ future illness and treatment response. To deal with this inherent uncertainty, partial identification analysis can be applied to make credible predictions for patient outcomes. This analysis motivates the use of decision criteria with well understood properties. Particular focus is given to the minimax-regret criterion, which specifies a decision rule as uniformly close to the optimal decision rule as possible given the underlying uncertainty of patient outcomes. The lectures draw on Manski's new book on the subject (https://press.princeton.edu/titles/30223.html) and on associated research articles.



Charles F. Manski

Professor in Economics
(Northwestern University)

06. and 08. November 2019


School of Business and Economics,

Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

Dorotheenstr. 1, 10178 Berlin, Room 005


In memory of Hermann Otto Hirschfeld

The Lecture Series is named after the remarkable German-American statistician Hermann Otto Hartley (known as HOH). Born H.O. Hirschfeld, he completed his PhD in mathematics at Humboldt-Universität in 1934. Shortly thereafter, HOH, who was of Jewish descent, emigrated to England where he also changed his name a few years later. He worked at Cambridge, Shofield, and University College, London until 1953 when he again emigrated by taking a position in the United States at Iowa State College. In 1963 he founded Texas A&M University's Institute of Statistics and was the driving force behind its expansion during the next two decades. After his retirement from Texas A&M in 1977, he continued to work until his death in 1980, the last two years as a full professor at Duke University. Throughout his career, HOH advocated for and helped establish statistics as an important and autonomous scientific discipline.

His major research was in the area of survey sampling, but he also contributed to mathematical programming and optimization, as well as working on the estimation of variance components and in the field of biometrics. HOH served as the 74th president of the ASA (American Statistical Association).

In this spirit, the Hermann Otto Hirschfeld Lectures at Humboldt-Universität are given since 2003 in memory of an excellent scientist and an advocate of quantitative methods.


About Charles F. Manski

CHARLES F. MANSKI has been Board of Trustees Professor in Economics at Northwestern University since 1997. He previously was a faculty member at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (1983-98), the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (1979-83), and Carnegie Mellon University (1973-80). He received his B.S. and Ph.D. in economics from M. I. T. in 1970 and 1973. He has received honorary doctorates from the University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’ (2006) and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem (2018). Manski=s research spans econometrics, judgment and decision, and analysis of public policy. He is author of Public Policy in an Uncertain World (Harvard 2013), Identification for Prediction and Decision (Harvard 2007), Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response (Princeton 2005), Partial Identification of Probability Distributions (Springer, 2003), Identification Problems in the Social Sciences (Harvard 1995), and Analog Estimation Methods in Econometrics (Chapman & Hall, 1988), co-author of College Choice in America (Harvard 1983), and co-editor of Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs (Harvard 1992) and Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications (MIT 1981). He has served as Director of the Institute for Research on Poverty (1988-91), Chair of the Board of Overseers of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1994-98), and Chair of the National Research Council Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs (1998-2001). Editorial service includes terms as editor of the Journal of Human Resources (1991-94), co-editor of the Econometric Society Monograph Series (1983-88), member of the Editorial Board of the Annual Review of Economics (2007-13), member of the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (2010-18), and associate editor of the Annals of Applied Statistics (2006-10), Econometrica, (1980-88), Journal of Economic Perspectives (1986-89), Journal of the American Statistical Association (1983-85, 2002-04), and Transportation Science (1978-84). Manski is an elected Member of the National Academy of Sciences. He is an elected Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association, and Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy.

More about Charles F. Manski


06 November 2019, 10:00-11:45
WIAS, Mohrenstraße 39, 10117 Berlin

08 November 2019, 14:00-16:00 
Room 005, DOR1 


Please register in advance via e-mail to
by November 6, 2019

Participation in the event is free

Organisation and Contact Information

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Härdle
Prof. Dr. Vladimir Spokoiny

International Research Training Group (IRTG) 1792
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
School of Business and Economics
Dorotheenstr. 1
D-10178 Berlin

Tel.: +49 (0)30 2093-99463

E-mail: Egor Klochkov @hu-berlin.de

Lecture Slides


Click here to download the lecture slides.