Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin - High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series

IRTG1792DP2020 011

The Effect of Control Measures on COVID-19 Transmission and Work Resumption:
International Evidence

Lina Meng
Yinggang Zhou
Ruige Zhang
Zhen Ye
Senmao Xia
Giovanni Cerulli
Carter Casady
Wolfgang K. Härdle

Many countries have taken non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain the
spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and push the recovery of national
economies. This paper investigates the effect of these control measures by
comparing five selected countries, China, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom,
and the United States. There is evidence that the degree of early intervention
and efficacy of control measures are essential to contain the pandemic. China
stands out because its early and strictly enforced interventions are effective
to contain the virus spread. Furthermore, we quantify the causal effect of
different control measures on COVID-19 transmission and work resumption in
China. Surprisingly, digital contact tracing and delegating clear responsibility
to the local community appear to be the two most effective policy measures for
disease containment and work resumption. Public information campaigns and social
distancing also help to flatten the peak significantly. Moreover, material
logistics that prevent medical supply shortages provide an additional
conditioning factor for disease containment and work resumption. Fiscal policy,
however, is less effective at the early to middle stage of the pandemic.

COVID-19, coronavirus

JEL Classification: